The Unique Property
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Quo Vadis?
How’s it going in poor old Europe?
1. Apparently Europe will be sort of alright this winter because the US, having blown up the Nordstream pipelines, is now suggesting that they will send Europe some good All-American LNG instead, at five times the old price of course.
2 The US, with a little help from its Israeli friends, is seeking to destabilise more of the Middle East, which will probably destabilise alternative routes for oil and gas to reach Europe.
3 Germany is having to wind down its industrial base, which means the only remaining stronghold for EU economic power is collapsing as its lifeblood literally ebbs away, leaving the rest of the EU without its essential support system.
4 Northern Europe may well recover when some sanity hits some of the countries and they realise that living in the Middle Ages is not as wonderful as they currently seem to think, but that may take a few winter days before the penny drops. Doing something to reverse the situation may take a trifle longer.
5 Cheap energy is what has brought us our luxurious lifestyle. That looks to be over for the time being. And that will not just mean less power sloshing around, it will mean large parts of our modern lifestyle sinking out of sight.
6 The political scene is changing rapidly, and at the moment it is moving rapidly away from an increasingly out of control scene in Washington
7 The EU has over the course a few short months become a no-go zone, and the Brussels domination appears to have reached the end of the road. It is now a matter of rapid reorganisation or die within the EU.
8 The US$ may well be in for a hard time two or three years down the road when other countries realise that the US is not a very nice country to have as a friend, and commodity-based alternatives start being used for international trade. This will radically change the way the commercial world functions.
What can we take away from all the above?
The world is rapidly moving to the right politically speaking. It is becoming obvious that left policies lead to ruin. That has always been the case, but folks always seem to think that next time will be different, but one only has to cast a cursory glance around the globe to find that socialist countries are the ones closest to chaos and ruin.
Woke ideas are also rapidly heading for the trash. Leading the rush down the drain is Facebook, which over the past few months has lost two-thirds of its value, and doesn’t look like slowing down any time soon.
Cold weather in the northern hemisphere will hasten the move towards a resuscitation of fossil fuels, at least until greener alternatives become viable. The UK is heading in the right direction on this right now, and not before time.
In the short term the mess is going to get worse, and we are all going to get a lot poorer. Interest rates will have to continue rising, and governments are going to continue to go broke. As far as the UK is concerned, that means a further depreciation in sterling. For the EU it will mean at the very least a total re-thinking of the euro. At the moment the current way the currency is managed is unsustainable. I still maintain that the only way it can work is under a two-tier system much the same way as the currencies in Central America. I have made this point at regular intervals ever since the currency was first floated. There will have to be a return to local currencies with rates floating against an underlying euro, but how that central currency is valued is quite another matter; presumably as a computed value based upon a basket of all the linked separate currencies. Public finances would be handled in the local currency, while cross-border trade could be carried on using the euro. Many people think the euro is doomed. I have to admit I cant see that. It is too useful, but simply has been hastily and badly structured.
Until all these competing paths of chaos settle down life is going to be a right royal mess here in Europe. As for real estate I am still of the view that with careful planning a move south if at all feasible is the most sensible way forward in the short term. One thing is certain, there are no short term easy fixes to this mess.
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