Time for my annual round-up of real
estate thoughts.
This has been the worst decade I can remember for trying to
work out where we are headed.
Without really looking, we currently have:
1 the US-China trade war which spills over to the rest
of world trade
2 the Middle East still in chaos
3 problems on the EU borders
4 the EU lurching from one cock-up to the next
5 Brexit
6 Down Under the Aussie banking and property crisis
gradually gets worse
7 China is still making threatening noises to anyone
who upsets their aggressive foreign policy
8 The USA is beginning to realise that it can be a
game of diminishing returns, and exponential costs to carry
on being the world's policeman. Trump shouts at those who
threaten the US in any way, and at the same time he is
intent on backing off from the unenviable roll as ultimate
arbiter on the planet.
There is one thing we can be certain of: The old order is on
the cusp of a great change.
And if we break down the EU problems (which is where most of
my readers live, although I do have readers in over 70
countries), I am surprised there is anyone keen to stay in
the EU.
1 The banking system is in such a state that there are
still a dozen major banks either down-right bust or
teetering on the edge, even such stalwarts as Deutsche Bank.
Has anyone checked the share price recently?
2 Italy's banking system is wrecked, as is their
economy; and nobody there appears to be happy.
3 France is a deeply split country
4 Greece has gone beyond repair unless something
changes drastically
5 Almost every country in the EU is in recession, or
downright depression. Even Germany only manages to stay out
of recession because the figures are massaged.
What does this augur for real estate?
The obvious warning is to continue to stay well clear of
real estate in Australia. That market has some way still to
fall.
I am wary of the property boom in Germany, and I am still
holding to my view that I would rather keep my powder dry
for when the crash really does arrive. And don't ask me when
that is going to happen. I was fully prepared for the bomb
to drop a couple of years ago. I suspect it's finally going
to crash when we have all given up expecting it.
So, at the end of all that, where do we stand?
There's no point in me coming up with thoughts about the
coming year when my honest opinion is pretty much the same
as any reasonably intelligent person. My views on the real
estate markets can be summed up in four simple words: I
haven't a clue. Anyone who says anything different is
guessing.